Matches
Events
Creator
Prices
Testnet
AI Model Prediction Accuracy
93.8%
Knockout stage
AI Predicted
Due:
Group R32 · Round 4
06/28 19:00
South Africa
9%
-
21%
-
70%
Med-High
Canada
AI Prediction
Canada Win
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Group R32 · Round 4
06/29 17:00
Brazil
46%
-
28%
-
26%
Med
Japan
AI Prediction
Brazil Win
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Group R32 · Round 4
06/29 20:30
Germany
54%
-
26%
-
19%
Med
Paraguay
AI Prediction
Germany Win
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Group R32 · Round 4
06/30 01:00
Netherlands
50%
-
28%
-
22%
Med
Morocco
AI Prediction
Netherlands Win
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Group R32 · Round 4
06/30 17:00
Cote d'Ivoire
13%
-
24%
-
63%
Med-High
Norway
AI Prediction
Norway Win
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Group R32 · Round 4
06/30 21:00
France
82%
-
14%
-
3%
High
Sweden
AI Prediction
France Win
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⌃Completed Match Record
AI model Accuracy
93.8%
Group A · Round 3
06/24
Czechia
0
-
3
🎉 Correct Prediction
Mexico
Group B · Round 3
06/24
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3
-
1
🎉 Correct Prediction
Qatar
Group C · Round 3
06/24
Morocco
4
-
2
🎉 Correct Prediction
Haiti
Download the Full "Winning Guide" (PDF)
Download the Full "Winning Guide" (PDF)
Predict Skill
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Copy the link and open it in your AI assistant to start testing.
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About The Model
ForeGate 2026 FIFA World Cup Prediction Model
A transparent and explainable statistical model for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Powered by Elo ratings, the Dixon–Coles model, and Monte Carlo simulations. No machine learning black boxes or bookmaker odds are used, ensuring transparency, reproducibility, and verifiability.
Data Sources: Official FIFA squad lists, World Football Elo Ratings, the official FIFA group-stage draw, and international match history from martj42 (CC0). Ratings are updated daily throughout the tournament.
Backtested on approximately 8,000 real international matches, achieving 57–58% accuracy in win/draw/loss predictions with an ECE of approximately 1.6%. Failed predictions are disclosed transparently. No claims are made of outperforming betting markets.
1
Match-Weighted Elo Ratings
Historical performance + calibrated with recent international matches and squad strength.
2
Dixon–Coles Bivariate Poisson Model
Team ratings → Expected goals → Win/Draw/Loss & scoreline probabilities calculated in real-time.
3
Full Monte Carlo Simulation
10,000 seeded simulations → Qualification & championship probabilities for all 48 participating nations.
Data source: World Football Elo (eloratings.net) · Official FIFA 2026 group stage draw · martj42 international match results (CC0).
Data source: World Football Elo (eloratings.net) · Official FIFA 2026 group stage draw · martj42 international match results (CC0).
Partners
Media Support
Risk Disclaimer
The probabilities in this model/report are model outputs, not definitive results. Football matches can be affected by injuries, red cards, weather, rotations, in-game tactics, referee decisions, and other random events. This report is intended for event research, content planning, pre-match discussion, and community education only. It does not constitute betting advice, investment advice, or a guarantee of any outcome or profit. Users should consider the latest schedules, starting line-ups, injuries, and market changes before making their own judgments.